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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Arizona St.

Conference:P12
Expected RPI:66.0
Current RPI:66
Expected SOS:75
Current SOS:75
Current Record:20-11
Expected Record:20-11
Current Conf Record:8-11
Expected Conf Record:8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:5-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:6-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-0
Current OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC Record:12-0
Expected OOC RPI:9
Expected OOC SOS:103



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
20-1166.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arizona St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Idaho St. (268.0)BSkyH94-74W100%0.0
11-14San Diego St. (62.0)MWCH90-68W100%0.0
11-17Northern Arizona (310.0)BSkyH97-62W100%0.0
11-19UC Irvine (119.0)BWH99-78W100%0.0
11-23Kansas St. (53.0)B12N90-92W100%0.0
11-24Xavier (3.0)BEN102-86W100%0.0
12-2San Francisco (139.0)WCCH75-57W100%0.0
12-8St. John's (92.0)BEN82-70W100%0.0
12-10Kansas (5.0)B12A85-95W100%0.0
12-17Vanderbilt (132.0)SECH76-64W100%0.0
12-19Longwood (337.0)BSthH95-61W100%0.0
12-22Pacific (190.0)WCCH104-65W100%0.0
12-30Arizona (13.0)P12A84-78L0%0.0
1-4Colorado (82.0)P12A90-81L0%0.0
1-7Utah (59.0)P12A77-80W100%0.0
1-11Oregon (72.0)P12H72-76L0%0.0
1-13Oregon St. (137.0)P12H77-75W100%0.0
1-17Stanford (86.0)P12A86-77L0%0.0
1-20California (216.0)P12A73-81W100%0.0
1-25Utah (59.0)P12H77-80L0%0.0
1-27Colorado (82.0)P12H80-66W100%0.0
2-1Washington (71.0)P12A68-64L0%0.0
2-4Washington St. (179.0)P12A78-88W100%0.0
2-8USC (34.0)P12H80-78W100%0.0
2-10UCLA (36.0)P12H88-79W100%0.0
2-15Arizona (13.0)P12H70-77L0%0.0
2-22Oregon (72.0)P12A75-68L0%0.0
2-24Oregon St. (137.0)P12A79-75L0%0.0
3-1California (216.0)P12H84-53W100%0.0
3-3Stanford (86.0)P12H83-84L0%0.0
3-7Colorado (82.0)P12N97-85L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Arizona St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Arizona St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Arizona St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Arizona St.P1226.2326.2361.6561.656.116.11
ColoradoP125.515.5151.7251.720.190.19
ArizonaP124.134.1378.1278.122.332.33
StanfordP124.004.0051.6151.610.130.13
OregonP123.963.9662.5062.500.990.99
CaliforniaP123.923.9227.5927.59-1.76-1.76
Oregon St.P123.923.9250.0050.000.000.00
UtahP123.923.9264.2964.291.121.12
USCP122.592.5969.7069.701.021.02
Washington St.P122.542.5440.0040.00-0.51-0.51
UCLAP122.542.5467.7467.740.900.90
WashingtonP122.492.4961.2961.290.560.56
Kansas St.B121.791.7968.7568.750.670.67
Northern ArizonaBSky1.771.7713.7913.79-1.28-1.28
XavierBE1.761.7687.5087.501.321.32
KansasB121.761.7681.8281.821.121.12
San FranciscoWCC1.741.7454.8454.840.170.17
PacificWCC1.741.7443.3343.33-0.23-0.23
St. John'sBE1.741.7448.3948.39-0.06-0.06
Idaho St.BSky1.691.6944.4444.44-0.19-0.19
San Diego St.MWC1.691.6970.0070.000.680.68
UC IrvineBW1.691.6950.0050.000.000.00
VanderbiltSEC1.661.6638.7138.71-0.38-0.38
LongwoodBSth1.611.6113.7913.79-1.17-1.17
Long Beach St.BW0.270.2741.9441.94-0.04-0.04
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.240.2456.2556.250.030.03
Portland St.BSky0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
San DiegoWCC0.230.2356.6756.670.030.03
Saint Mary'sWCC0.200.2084.8584.850.140.14
Southern UtahBSky0.190.1936.6736.67-0.05-0.05
Northern ColoradoBSky0.190.1961.2961.290.040.04
BYUWCC0.180.1870.5970.590.080.08
MontanaBSky0.180.1877.4277.420.100.10
UNLVMWC0.180.1860.6160.610.040.04
GonzagaWCC0.180.1888.2488.240.140.14
Loyola MarymountWCC0.180.1833.3333.33-0.06-0.06
UC DavisBW0.180.1866.6766.670.060.06
Colorado St.MWC0.180.1832.2632.26-0.06-0.06
New MexicoMWC0.180.1854.5554.550.020.02
OklahomaB120.170.1758.0658.060.030.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.160.1614.2914.29-0.11-0.11
NevadaMWC0.150.1579.4179.410.090.09
Air ForceMWC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
ButlerBE0.150.1560.6160.610.030.03
Santa ClaraWCC0.150.1534.4834.48-0.05-0.05
Central ArkansasSlnd0.150.1550.0050.000.000.00
Cal PolyBW0.150.1524.1424.14-0.08-0.08
Cal St. FullertonBW0.150.1562.0762.070.040.04
DenverSum0.150.1546.4346.43-0.01-0.01
ProvidenceBE0.150.1561.7661.760.040.04
DePaulBE0.150.1535.4835.48-0.04-0.04
TCUB120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Sacramento St.BSky0.140.1416.6716.67-0.09-0.09
IdahoBSky0.130.1368.9768.970.050.05
SeattleWAC0.130.1356.6756.670.020.02
RadfordBSth0.130.1362.5062.500.030.03
WyomingMWC0.130.1359.3859.380.020.02
HawaiiBW0.130.1353.5753.570.010.01
UC RiversideBW0.130.1324.1424.14-0.07-0.07
Fresno St.MWC0.130.1363.3363.330.030.03
CreightonBE0.120.1264.5264.520.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Seton HallBE0.120.1265.6265.620.040.04
South Dakota St.Sum0.120.1280.0080.000.070.07
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.120.1270.0070.000.050.05
BaylorB120.120.1254.8454.840.010.01
Texas A&MSEC0.120.1262.5062.500.030.03
Oklahoma St.B120.120.1257.5857.580.020.02
West VirginiaB120.120.1270.5970.590.050.05
Weber St.BSky0.110.1160.7160.710.020.02
Utah St.MWC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MissouriSEC0.100.1061.2961.290.020.02
PepperdineWCC0.100.1016.1316.13-0.07-0.07
PortlandWCC0.100.1024.1424.14-0.05-0.05
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
GeorgiaSEC0.100.1054.5554.550.010.01
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.100.1033.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Boise St.MWC0.100.1073.3373.330.050.05
KentuckySEC0.100.1070.5970.590.040.04
FloridaSEC0.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
MarquetteBE0.100.1059.3859.380.020.02
VillanovaBE0.100.1088.2488.240.080.08
Texas SouthernSWAC0.100.1044.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.100.1041.9441.94-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.100.1057.5857.580.010.01
Texas TechB120.100.1072.7372.730.040.04
ConnecticutAmer0.090.0943.7543.75-0.01-0.01
North DakotaBSky0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
San Jose St.MWC0.080.0810.3410.34-0.06-0.06
High PointBSth0.080.0840.7440.74-0.01-0.01
MississippiSEC0.080.0837.5037.50-0.02-0.02
UNC AshevilleBSth0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.080.0840.0040.00-0.02-0.02
DrakeMVC0.080.0848.3948.39-0.00-0.00
IowaB100.080.0842.4242.42-0.01-0.01
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
QuinnipiacMAAC0.080.0836.3636.36-0.02-0.02
Kent St.MAC0.070.0748.4848.48-0.00-0.00
AlabamaSEC0.070.0755.8855.880.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.070.0741.3841.38-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.070.0751.5251.520.000.00
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.050.0512.5012.50-0.04-0.04
Northwestern St.Slnd0.050.058.008.00-0.05-0.05
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
Grand CanyonWAC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
South DakotaSum0.050.0573.3373.330.020.02
St. Francis PANEC0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
VCUA100.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
WoffordSC0.050.0560.0060.000.010.01
HamptonMEAC0.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Saint Joseph'sA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
BelmontOVC0.050.0572.7372.730.020.02
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.050.0531.0331.03-0.02-0.02
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LSUSEC0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
MaristMAAC0.050.0519.3519.35-0.03-0.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Saint LouisA100.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.050.0575.7675.760.030.03
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
WisconsinB100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.050.0576.6776.670.030.03
NebraskaB100.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Nebraska OmahaSum0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
George WashingtonA100.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
NortheasternCAA0.050.0568.7568.750.020.02
Ohio St.B100.050.0575.0075.000.020.02
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
New Mexico St.WAC0.050.0583.3383.330.030.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.050.0525.8125.81-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Coppin St.MEAC0.050.0515.6215.62-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
PurdueB100.050.0582.3582.350.030.03
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.030.0365.5265.520.010.01
Youngstown St.Horz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
ColumbiaIvy0.030.0326.9226.92-0.01-0.01
CornellIvy0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
JacksonvilleASun0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.030.0380.0080.000.020.02
UNC GreensboroSC0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
VMISC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
BradleyMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
CanisiusMAAC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
Eastern IllinoisOVC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.030.0332.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Alcorn St.SWAC0.030.0325.0025.00-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.030.0367.6567.650.010.01
AuburnSEC0.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Austin PeayOVC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
Central ConnecticutNEC0.030.0343.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
DuquesneA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia TechACC0.030.0340.6240.62-0.00-0.00
Houston BaptistSlnd0.030.0310.7110.71-0.02-0.02
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Kennesaw St.ASun0.030.0328.5728.57-0.01-0.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.010.01
New OrleansSlnd0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South CarolinaSEC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
VirginiaACC0.030.0393.9493.940.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.030.0365.6265.620.010.01
AmericanPat0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
East Tennessee St.SC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
MarshallCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
Morehead St.OVC0.020.0222.2222.22-0.01-0.01
Northern IowaMVC0.020.0246.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
TulsaAmer0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
USC UpstateASun0.020.0210.7110.71-0.02-0.02
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
AkronMAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
LehighPat0.020.0251.7251.720.000.00
OaklandHorz0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
PrincetonIvy0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
SyracuseACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.020.0266.6766.670.010.01